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07-11-2017 
Arrieta warms up in Boston before giving up 5 ER and 10 Hits in 4.1 IP. (Image courtesy of: Me!) Many optimistic Cubs fans are saying right now, "Any team can have a bad half." But can they realistically recover from a 5.5 deficit to the Brewers? The question sounds laughable. Of course they can....is what you want to say, and want to believe. But regardless of which team the Cubs are looking up at, they will still have to play over .500 ball to be a contender. Much to our disappointment, they are simply not doing that. Lester's 10-run 1st inning on Sunday put an exclamation point on what has been a wholly underperforming first half (with the ironic exception of last year's Achilles, the bullpen). How did we get here? A 13-11 April saw the Cubs leading the NL Central by 1 game. May's 12-16 left the Cubs at third place in the division, looking up to division-leading Milwaukee by 2.5 games. World Series hangover, we thought. This team still has all the talent in the world, we said. Long season, etc. etc. A 15-13 June record placed the Cubs at .500 (still 2 back of the Brew Crew) as we searched, hoped, and prayed for games that would be considered turning points. Early in the month, a 5-game winning streak was immediately followed by 4 in the loss column. After that, only once would the Cubs string together two or more consecutive victories. One "vintage" Jake performance and two ugly laughers within four days (Lester's above-mentioned roughing up and an 11-2 Brewers beating that saw Jon Jay pich a scoreless 9th) brought the trudging World Series defending champs to the All-Star break at 2 games under .500 and a widened 5.5 game deficit to the Brewers. Raise your hand if you predicted being 5.5 games back in the NL Central at this point. Back to you optimists, I implore you to ask yourself, "If an entire team can have a bad half, can an individual player have an exquisite half?" And if so, can we look at Jake Arrieta outside of his world-beating second half of the 2015 campaign? Remember that Jake didn't even make the All-Star squad in 2015. Since coming to the Cubs, Arrieta has been a great pitcher. No doubt. But he is performing as a good pitcher now - somewhere in the B/B+ range if you take his average performance this season. He has been maddingly inconsistent. Of 18 outings, 8 have been quality starts, but he's failed to complete the 5th inning in another 5. Can he be counted on down the stretch, after another tally of 170-180 regular season innings? Can this team, with this pitching staff, possibly make a playoff run if they do happen to overcome the Brewers and hold off the Cardinals, and maybe even the Pirates too? I don't think so. A look at the rest of the rotation gets worse. Jon Lester He arguably had a career year in 2016. Lester notched career bests in WHIP and Hits/9 in 2016, and Win%, if you're into that sort of thing. This year, regression in basically every category except K/9. John Lackey 2016 also saw his career bests in WHIP and Hits/9, while tying his top performance in K/9. Lackey didn't contribute much of anything useful in the postseason though, going 0-1 with only 13 IP in 3 games started, giving up 2 or more ER in every start. This year he's already dished up 24 homers...he's only had 3 complete seasons with more. Like Jake, he's also a free agent after 2017. Kyle Hendricks came out of nowhere last year to lead the league in ERA. 2017 has been a bit of a wash for him with injuries, but I believe in his demeanor and mental game, and want him to stick around and be a part of this team's future. That's not exactly going out on a limb because he's only 27 and is under team control through the 2020 campaign. But for the sake of being thorough (and not too pessimistic), I wanted to mention him. I'm not gonna talk about this mess of experimental 4-5 starters like Eddie Butler, Brett Anderson, and Mike Montgomery, except to say that Monte definitely belongs in the bullpen where he serves in an elite roll instead of being just an average starter. He has a ton of flexibility as a lefty specialist or long reliever. He was famously the only reliever Joe Maddon trusted in the playoffs last year other than rent-a-cannon Aroldis Chapman, who went back from whence he came. So why dissect the good, bad, and ugly of the rotation? I believe the following: **As I said above, I don't believe this staff can win the NL Central, much less make another deep run in the playoffs. **The Cubs won't be able to re-sign Jake Arrieta, who will likely go for $25-30M/yr and 4-7 years to some deep-pocketed team. With those things in mind, let's take an opportunity to get something for Arrieta instead of letting him walk during free agency! If the unemotional Theo and Jed duo decide to do just that, look at the other pieces that become available to buyers at the trade deadline: Arrieta, Lackey, Strop (controlled through 2018 with a club option for 2019 - Note: Rangers are looking for a reliever with longer control), Uehara (free agent after 2017). This leaves a solid core intact in the bullpen - Carl Edwards Jr, Wade Davis, and Mike Montgomery. And lest we forget, all the bats stay as well. I'm not skilled enough to delve deeply into suitors for these pieces. It's hard enough to thread the needle with these prospective trades since the Cubs' biggest need is young starting pitching. There aren't many trades executed where a club is giving up old arms for young arms. However, Cubs fans know the price of Chapman last year was one of the top SS prospects in the game, Gleyber Torres. What would Jake command? Also consider that guys like Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill (both DFA-turned-kinda-sorta-productive-Cubs-for-a-minute) are names being offered on the trade market this year. Keith Law identifies the top three farm systems as the Braves, Yankees, and Padres, in that order. All have arms available. And guess what? The Bronx Bombers and Padres are familiar Cubs trading partners. Not that the Padres are pushing their chips all-in this year. The Dodgers are also stocked on the farm, and could have the urge to shore up their pitching if they want to push deep into the playoffs again this season. After saying all this, news broke yesterday that the Cubs were dangling Kyle Schwarber to the Tigers for 2016 ROY Michael Fulmer in what would be a wild exchange of talented 24-year-olds that, based on Twitter reactions, would leave both fan bases a little pissed off. However, if the Cubs can pull off this trade, I do reserve the right to re-ignite my belief in the 2017 Cubs. A staff of Lester, Fulmer, Arrieta, and Hendricks with the plethora of bats the Cubs still possess would look nightmare-ish to any opposing team. Have fun, and #FlyTheW! -T |
Inside My Brain