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3-15-05 March is here again. Fellow gamblers, we all know what that means - time to cash in! On baseball!! Whoa!....Did I just say baseball? Hey, where ya going? I know what you're about to tell me - no one bets on baseball outside of guys with 4200+ hits to their credit. And even he wasn't any good at it. 162 freakin' games. Anything can happen on any given day. And I would agree with you. That's why we skip over the "every day" and look at the season as a whole. I'm telling you (pay attention): MLB team season win totals are the way to go. Sure, this isn't for everyone. For one thing, you have to wait out your wagers for about 6 months. Do you have the patience for that? And more importantly, do you have the bankroll? No and No, most people would answer. I'll start by countering the second question since it is very impractical to have either Vegas or some faceless El Capitan Dinero down in Costa Rica tying up your money for that long. Find yourself a "good friend" so you can square up at the end of the season. They're out there. Next you're telling me you aren't Guns 'N Roses and you don't have patience. Fine. I'm not sure we're gonna get along, but let's keep this moving. Baseball is romantic and gambling can be too. Every day for months you get the opportunity to open that USAToday and check if the Mariners lost (if it wasn't a late game). Or you can be at a bar in Illinois with a Cubs hat on and have people around you really confused as to why you're cheering the Twins victory on the ticker. Whatever. There's plenty of fun in between. And don't forget, at the end of the year, there will be a payout. I'm telling you, I've never lost at this. The ground rules are like this. Get all the numbers. Get the rosters. Get last year's win total. Things to consider:
Here's how this will go down. I'm going to present every team and their number, along with last year's win total. I'll give any random thoughts I have on the roster, then my recommendation along with how strongly I feel about the decision on a 1-5 scale that plays like this: 5 - I'm hopping on it like it's Rollergirl. 4 - Looks good. 3 - It would help if a few friends felt the same way. 2 - Not a feeling either way. Wouldn't pick unless I had to. 1 - More questionable than that 8-day old sandwich in the back of the fridge - Let's stay away. Arizona - 74. Last year - 51. Feelings: Wow, a surprise right off the bat. How does any team with the Big Unit finish this poorly? And where was I last year? You've got to like at least a couple of the additions that include Glaus, Cruz Jr., Vazquez, Shawn Green, and Shawn Estes. Verdict/rating: over/3 Atlanta - 89. Last year - 96. Feelings: This team seems shaky to me. Which Mike Hampton will come out this year? Can Smoltzy handle starting again? Is Danny Kolb the real deal? Is Julio Franco made of futuristic bionic parts? And if so, couldn't he be made a little more attractive? Mondesi, Brian Jordan, Furcal and his rap sheet...holy cow, this whole team is a roll of the dice. They seem to find ways to do it, just like last year, but I can't take them. Verdict/rating: under/3 Baltimore - 80.5. Last year - 78. Feelings: I never understood Sidney Ponson-mania. Ever since he was THE GUY at the trade deadline last year or the year before. Now I don't get how he's a #1 starter. This team may have the lumber (with or without Sammy, who I hold ill will toward, and who very well might feel the withdrawal effects of this year's least favorite saga), but what's with the pitching? Verdict/rating: under/3 Boston - 95.5. Last year - 98. Feelings: Yep. Yep. Dang old yep. Yyyep. This is a solid team. Getting to 96 wins is tough, for sure, but I think they can do it. My only questions concern the durability of Schilling and Wells, and a possible let-down after finally conquering the Yanks and the Series last year. Verdict/rating: over/2 Chicago Cubs - 88.5. Last year - 89. Feelings: I have too many feelings on this year's squad. Why let Clement go? I think he was coming into his own. Wood and Prior each have arm troubles already this year. I need to break something. GM Jim Hendry let me down for the first time this off-season. I kept waiting for a decent signing, and got Nomar (possibly uninspired, but we'll see if the fans can change that) for a year and Burnitz. Will Maddux and Zambrano each show their age? Can Corey ever realize his potential? Will we ever find a dang closer? Wild Thing, where have you gone? Verdict/rating: Under/4 It's not a wise idea to bet on the over for your own team, as you may have an inflated opinion of them and their hype. Plus losing could have a multiplier effect on your drinking and prescription pill intake. On the other hand, if you think the number is too high your feelings are probably founded in reality. In this case, losing your bet would mean happiness with your teams win total and everything should balance out. Chicago White Sox - 83. Last year - 83. Feelings: I hate the White Sox. I even bought a Brewers hat back when they were in the AL since their rivalry was always kinda heated. At least as heated a rivalry as two completely sucky teams can have. Maybe lukewarm. I see the Big Hurt is 2nd on ESPN's DH Depth Chart - Did you ever think you would see the day? I always hate the White Sox pitching because they have a way of getting 15-20 wins out of guys like Esteban Loaiza or Black Jack McDowell when their ERAs and WHIPs are horrid. This year the only guy I like is El Duque, and that's just because deep down every baseball fan likes him. Verdict/rating: under/4 For the record, I wish the Cubs would have signed Jermaine Dye and stuck him in LF. Then Hollandsworth could have come off the bench with his cape like he did last year pre-injury. Cinci - 78. Last year - 76. Feelings: I love this time of year. Birds chirping, the smell of the grass, and people buying Griffey rookie cards 'just in case this is the year he regains his form.' It looks like the NL really added some contenders while some of the air has been sucked out of the AL, but Cinci still stinks. Verdict/rating: under/3 Cleveland - 83.5. Last year - 80. Feelings: I see quite a few under-rateds and up-and-comers on this team. Kind of a weak division. I've got a good gut feeling on this one. Someone in the AL Central and West will have to get wins, right? Verdict/rating: over/4 Colorado - 67. Last year - 68. Feelings: I think if you played a little game to see which team had the most blank shadows on ESPN's depth chart, the Rockies would win. G. Atkins, B. Hawpe, C. Barmes, C. Tsao? At least a couple of those have to be made up. The question is, can you really win less than 67 games? I say yes. Verdict/rating: under/2 Detroit - 80. Last year - 72. Feelings: One of baseball's feel good stories over the past couple years. Snatched Pudge Rodriguez a couple years ago. This off-season they got Troy Percival, Magglio Ordonez, a Bible and several rolls of duct tape. Will starting pitching ever be a priority? Verdict/rating: over/1 Florida - 86.5. Last year - 83. Feelings: As much disdain as I harbor for this team, they scare the bejesus out of me. Both their hitting and pitching look monsterous. Verdict/rating: over/5 Houston - 83.5. Last year - 92. Feelings: I'm done saying Clemens is too old. 84 wins is only 4 games over .500. I think this is a good one. Verdict/rating: over/4 Kansas City - 65. Last year - 58. Feelings: Do they have 100 loss potential? Yes. Verdict/rating: under/3 LA Angels - 92.5. Last year - 92. Feelings: Here's a team I don't really like to like, but I do. They got better over the off-season, and I'm always cheering for Vlad. Verdict/rating: over/2 LA Dodgers - 83.5. Last year - 93. Feelings: LA still has a rather nice looking team, unspectacular yet solid hitters throughout the lineup. Pitching is pretty much the same. The Giants and Padres should give a good run, but 84 wins sounds pretty do-able. Verdict/rating: over/4 Milwaukee - 69. Last year - 67. Feelings: I don't think this team is quite this bad. Verdict/rating: over/3 Minnesota - 89.5. Last year - 92. Feelings: The Twins usually put together a nice contender, and this team looks to be no exception. Even if Santana is human, the rest of the staff and bullpen looks good, and so does the batting lineup. Verdict/rating: over/3 NY Mets - 85. Last year - 71. Feelings: Obviously the biggest shakers in the free agent market, the Mets will probably attain 85 wins this season. You can bet with all the money they spent in the off-season, they would add someone else toward the end of the year to put them over the edge against Atlanta or Florida, who both look like they will be putting up stiff competition. Verdict/rating: over/3 NY Yankees - 101. Last year - 101. Feelings: Some aging stars and a somewhat shaky staff after Unit and Mussina. But Tino is back, a real glue guy in the clubhouse, and Matsui maybe hasn't reached his full potential yet? Still 101 wins is difficult. Verdict/rating: under/1 Oakland - 80. Last year - 91. Feelings: I don't think the competition in the AL West will be that stout, but this team has taken some heavy losses this off-season and Zito isn't his old self. Verdict/rating: under/4 Philadelphia - 83.5. Last year - 86. Feelings: I like this squad. Abreu is a guy fantasy league players appreciate way more than your average SportsCenter junkie. This was a team that was really supposed to contend last year but never got on track. Pitching staff is pretty solid. Verdict/rating: over/5 Pittsburgh - 73.5. Last year - 72. Feelings: A lot of youth, holes and question marks haunt this pitching staff. Playing against a geared up division doesn't help. Verdict/rating: under/3 San Diego - 86.5. Last year - 87. Feelings: Everyone has Padre mania this year. I'd be pleased with their staff, and having Hoffman in your pocket to close the door certainly reduces the sales of Pepto vendors at the park. I think the number is real tight on this team. Verdict/rating: over/1 San Francisco - 90. Last year - 91. Feelings: I don't know if the Bonds injury/speculation is keeping this number down, but this team looks good hitting- and pitching-wise. I don't think 96, 97, 98 wins are out of the question. Verdict/rating: over/5 Seattle - 80. Last year - 63. Feelings: Seattle bugs me for one of the same reasons the White Sox do - getting fluke win totals out of bad pitchers. It caught up with them last year and should still haunt them this year, even though they have more firepower through their batting order. Verdict/rating: under/3 St. Louis - 93. Last year - 105. Feelings: It's terrifying for a Cubs fan to look at this lineup and staff. Even Reggie Sanders has averaged 21.5 homers and 22+ steals over the past 12 years! And he's basically an afterthought in this order, just plugged into the #6 spot. I can't say any more; I'm about to ralph up my Golden Grahams. Verdict/rating: over/4 Tampa Bay - 70. Last year - 70. Feelings: It's hard to believe this team broke into the league the same time as the Diamondbacks... Verdict/rating: under/3 Texas - 80.5. Last year - 89. Feelings: This team is surprisingly similar to last year, just with added seasoning for some of it's young hitters. Would it have killed them to go after a pitcher of slightly higher quality than Pedro Astacio? Geez, I think my sister was available. Call me crazy, but I still see enough out of the staff to reach this win total. Verdict/rating: over/4 Toronto - 69. Last year - 67. Feelings: When you consider Roy Halladay won 8 games last year and not 20, this team looks terrible. Verdict/rating: under/5 Washington - 70. Last year - 67. Feelings: One of my favorite rituals has always been finding the Expos number, laughing, then collecting in the fall. This year we prove that a rose by any other name still smells as sweet. Verdict/rating: over/4 I won't be making my picks and then scampering off never to address them again. At a minimum, I'll give an update around the All-Star Break and of course a final tally after the season ends. For all my fellow stat-nerds out there, here is a breakdown of my picks:
Looks like hope springs eternal with all those overs... Thanks for stopping by. As always - Have fun. |
Inside My Brain