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3-27-06 It's a great time of year. Fantasy drafts are heating up, and baseball is in the air...somewhere. It still smells like snow and haze outside my front door, but I'm confident that at some point my grass will need to be cut and Baseball Tonight will be relevant again. Baseball numbers have been posted, so here we go again. If you can pull yourself away from March Madness, it's time to make some "decisions" that will yield a two-fold payout. One payout will be the summer romance of watching your picks come to bloom. Which is all fine and dandy, but that lump of cash in the fall is what this is all about. For the uninitiated, check last year's column to figure out what the heck I'm talking about. For anyone too lazy to click a link, well, first of all I'm impressed with your commitment to laziness, but I will give a brief explanation of what's going on here. Getting to the crux of this column, I have a talent. A talent that goes largely unappreciated in the gambling community, but it is a moneymaking skill nonetheless. I have the ability to successfully wager on the baseball team win numbers year after year, and this is something I am willing to share with everybody. How do I do this, you may ask? (...if you're one of my single-digit readership) Simple. Through minimal research and gut feeling. One thing I liken this to is a gambling mutual fund. Not every pick is going to be a winner, but having a feel for the players, the teams, and the game nearly guarantees we will come out ahead. Some teams make me want to just throw my hands up in the air and flip a coin, but we'll try to avoid that. Last year, just one pick could have made the difference between finishing positive (which we did, +3.6 units) and finishing negative (which we did not [see: earlier in this sentence]). Playing these wagers is simple. Pick your team, decide if they should go above or below the posted number of wins. For spice, I rate my picks on a 1-5 scale that goes something like this: 5 = The Santanas - Good stuff! I have the most faith that these are going to come through. 4 = The Mannys - Pretty confident, but these picks may go bonkers and take the day off. 3 = The Madduxes - Not exciting, but I'm pretty sure I know what I'm getting. 2 = The Sorianos - Getting a little shaky in this territory. Not sure where these are at. 1 = The Woods - What's up with these? Are they good or bad? I can't tell. So, ground rules and set-up: Get all the numbers. Get the rosters, if you're unfamiliar. Get last year's win total. Learn from last year. What mistakes were made last year? One big one, namely not paying attention to key injuries. I had the Giants over their number and a "5" rating while Bonds was a big question mark. I paid for that mistake. No more talk about paying though. Let's talking about getting paid and how we're going to do it: Arizona - 74. Last year - 77. Feelings: I feel pretty strongly that this is a bad team. El Duque was a nice addition, and when he's on he's definitely better suited for the #1 starter spot than Brandon Webb, who is more "adequate" than "ace." Bullpen should be unimpressive and there are too many aging bats in the lineup (Gonzo, Green). Verdict/rating: under/4 Atlanta - 87.5. Last year - 90. Feelings: It wouldn't be shocking if the left side of their infield (Jones/Renteria) completely broke down. You're also banking on potential for McCann (catcher), Francoeur, and LaRoche. No Leo Mazzone is one thing, but also throwing in a young catcher is a little dangerous, even with a couple veterans on the staff. This is still a tough team to count out with their leadership. Verdict/rating: under/2 Baltimore - 74.5. Last year - 74. Feelings: A spectacular collapse (30-40 in their last 70 games) won this bet for us last year after a strong start gave cause for concern. This year they have made some actual improvements. Don't let the big name losses like Palmeiro and Sosa fool you. A few mid-range imports like Corey Patterson, Kevin Millar, LaTroy Hawkins and Ramon Hernandez should shore up this team nicely. Their pitching staff may or may not flourish under Leo Mazzone, and they don't have a solid replacement for closer BJ Ryan. Should be tough to thrive in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and revamped Blue Jays. Verdict/rating: over/1 Boston - 91.5. Last year - 95. Feelings: This team figures to be a contender again, even though their first basemen has eight career homers. Bullpen is solid. Schilling is supposed to be ready to go, and I believe it after taking a virtual year off. Besides, can you really see them finishing behind the Blue Jays? Verdict/rating: over/2 Chicago Cubs - 85.5. Last year - 79. Feelings: The Pierre signing was nice. The bullpen is shored up. But for 86 wins, you need at least a couple of the following: the big guns to be healthy, Maddux' decline to remain gentle and not abrupt, Aramis' groin to hold together, and some youngsters (Murton/Cedeno) to perform or at least be given a chance from Dusty. That just seems to be asking too much. Verdict/rating: Under/4 Chicago White Sox - 91. Last year - 99. Feelings: Ah, the defending champs. They brought in some decent names (Vazquez and Thome) and being able to plug in Vazquez down in the rotation should get him some very favorable matchups. The Sox also benefit from having KC and Detroit in their division. That puts them over the edge. Verdict/rating: over/3 Cinci - 74. Last year - 73. Feelings: Newly acquired Bronson Arroyo gives the Reds exactly one starter with an over .500 record from 2005. Bravo. There are definitely bats and speed on this team, but the arms are lacking. Verdict/rating: under/3 Cleveland - 89. Last year - 93. Feelings: Their number was way too low last year and they smashed it by over 9 wins. This team of young bats also played stellar 47-33 ball to end the season, and came within sniffing distance of taking the division from the ChiSox last year. Losing Millwood kinda hurts, but the arms on this staff still have plenty of pop. Verdict/rating: over/4 Colorado - 69.5. Last year - 67. Feelings: This is a team I look at and I say, "I bet I know who their All-Star representative will be." That's not a good thing. Verdict/rating: under/3 Detroit - 78.5. Last year - 71. Feelings: A few hitters have developed on this team and the Tigers went out in the last off-season and scared up some pitching (Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones). It looked like last year was the time for them to emerge, and they didn't. Some of their pitchers have potential, but I just don't see them making that big an improvement as a team. Verdict/rating: under/3 Florida - 65. Last year - 83. Feelings: Wow, this team looks terrible. Cabrera and Dontrelle should put up hopefully their usual stats and from there the rest of the cast is borrowed from a Nickelodeon show. If I see correctly, outside of Cabrera, the rest of the starters combined for 15 major league homers last year. Impressive. The question is how bad a team can be, because only the Royals won fewer than 67 games last year. Verdict/rating: under/2 Houston - 82.5. Last year - 89. Feelings: No Bagwell, no problem. The good news about Houston is that they have no fans to artificially inflate this number. Fairly solid starters, a good closer, and nice bats all around. A healthy Berkman to boot. Even with no Clemens, this number is easily attainable. Verdict/rating: over/5 Kansas City - 64. Last year - 56. Feelings: Playing for the Royals must be like working in an office setting where everyone openly hates their job. I think the players all just take turns on the DL because playing for KC is so thankless and uninspiring. Adding Reggie Sanders to that mix is potentially hazardous. He could easily spend half the season on the sidelines. Half of their starters are recycled pitchers who had #3 potential.... and didn't reach it. Verdict/rating: under/4 LA Angels - 87.5. Last year - 95. Feelings: A lot of speed on the bases and some live arms, even the #4 and #5 guys at least are young and have potential. Vlad is already blazing in spring training. This isn't your old Angels team; they tied Cleveland for giving up the fewest runs in the AL last season. Verdict/rating: over/4 LA Dodgers - 85. Last year - 71. Feelings: So, what do you do with a team that usually underachieves and goes about .500, but really underachieved last year to only win 71 games? Looking at their roster, I see a bunch of has beens and never was'es: Nomar, Kent, Cruz Jr., Lofton, Drew, Lowe, Penny, Tomko, Odalis Perez. That's your idea of a team? Did the MLB start a senior league and I didn't hear about it? Verdict/rating: under/4 Milwaukee - 82. Last year - 81. Feelings: There was some buzz around the Brewers this year, and then it died off once the injury bug hit Ben Sheets, and rightfully so. They have a great closer and Prince Fielder will be a closely-watched prospect, but I have a feeling that they might come on strong next year instead of this one. Verdict/rating: under/2 Minnesota - 83. Last year - 83. Feelings: The Twins look like a lot of other teams, one good pitcher with a bunch of middle of the road guys (albeit a very, very good pitcher in this case), a good closer, and a couple decent hitters sprinkled in, but no big win potential. They figure to have 3rd place in the division locked up already. Verdict/rating: under/1 NY Mets - 91. Last year - 83. Feelings: Two straight years of cleaning up in free agency. Last year was supposed to be full of potential too though. Once you get past Pedro and his ailment du juor, the rotation could be labeled "shaky" or "mediocre" at best. Wagner is dinged up, but I'll give the Mets another chance. Verdict/rating: over/2 NY Yankees - 98. Last year - 95. Feelings: Attaining this number is wins is flat-out difficult. Right now Mussina and the Big Unit are without injury, but they are getting up there. I think the Yankees will do what they have to to win the division, but it won't be 98 or more wins. Verdict/rating: under/2 Oakland - 90. Last year - 88. Feelings: I don't see any speed on the base paths and their hitting looks to be a little below average for the AL. That's a lot of pressure on Zito, who seems to have lost something, Harden, who by all accounts is the real deal, and Huston Street, their young closer. 90 wins is a lot to ask. There is potential for disaster here. Verdict/rating: under/4 Philadelphia - 82. Last year - 88. Feelings: Just a solid looking team. Hitting and pitching look good. Hopefully Flash has something in the tank and can close games for them. This was my only 5-point pick to come through last year, and I'm going to the well again. Verdict/rating: over/5 Pittsburgh - 75.5. Last year - 67. Feelings: The odds-makers are seeing something I don't in this team. Let's capitalize on it. I don't believe this team can play anywhere near .500 ball. Verdict/rating: under/5 San Diego - 77.5. Last year - 82. Feelings: Well, some team other than the Giants will have to get wins in this division. SD has an above-average array of pitching, if a batting order that won't thrill. For a team lacking star power, I feel excited about this pick. Verdict/rating: under/4 San Francisco - 83.5. Last year - 75. Feelings: Bonds is fading after things looked optimistic earlier in spring training. The Giants #1-3 starters should be solid, but that's a big X factor in left field. I can't put many eggs in their basket this year. Verdict/rating: over/2 Seattle - 75. Last year - 69. Feelings: I'm not sure the odds-makers know what to do with Seattle except look at their win total from the year before. Their pitching and hitting are mediocre, but you've got an excitement factor with King Felix. 75 wins equals 12 games under .500. I just don't think they are that bad. It's not a strong feeling though. Verdict/rating: over/2 St. Louis - 92.5. Last year - 100. Feelings: From last year's squad they lost the bats of Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders, and lost the arms of Jason Marquis and Matt Morris. Still, this is a formidable team with a solid pitching staff and enough firepower to tear through the NL again. Verdict/rating: over/3 Tampa Bay - 67.5. Last year - 67. Feelings: Pitching is more "interesting" than "terrible," and the hitting looks surprisingly adequate. We may have a sleeper here. Verdict/rating: over/2 Texas - 81.5. Last year - 79. Feelings: The Rangers have a nice core of young hitters coming of age. The addition of Millwood addresses a staff long in need of a strong gun. This is a team capable of great things. Although they have a knack for underachieving, there is a small possibility of landing Clemens if they contend. Overall, this is way too talented of a team not to go .500 Verdict/rating: over/5 Toronto - 87. Last year - 80. Feelings: Big expectations for the Blue Jays this year. They were active in the free agent market, but I still don't see a team as loaded as I expected. Given that Roy Halliday tanked a couple years ago, how strong does the pitching staff look? The hitting is good, but not great. Verdict/rating: under/1 Washington - 75.5. Last year - 81. Feelings: I can't wait to reach the end of this list now that Washington took over the Expos. I don't know if it's the fact that this team has never had any fans, but their number is always set too low. This year I believe the cash cow continues, although I'm not as certain as last year's 4-point pick. Verdict/rating: over/2 A quick check to see a summary of what I've created...
Looking forward to the season... Have fun and good luck - T |
Inside My Brain