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5-27-06 With just over a quarter of the 2006 baseball season in the books, I'm not going to waste much time before I start gloating. The picks this year are looking strong thus far. A quick glance at the table below shows that 17 teams are on track with my predictions, and 13 are not. In addition, all of the big dollar 5-point picks are panning out at the moment. So what does all of this mean? What stands out about this season so far, and what teams are poised to flop from positive to negative, or vice-versa, for our purposes at least. First, can we write off any of our picks at this juncture? Yes. No need to waste our time worrying about a team like Detroit. They would have to finish 33-81 for us to win that pick. The fact is, they are on pace to have a whopping 25 more shutouts over the remainder of the season. Arizona is also playing extremely well right now. It's as if Brandon Webb took what I said about him personally. Next for my favorite part: Are any teams a virtual lock at this point? Being cautious to not jinx myself, I'll still say yes. The Cubs are miserable. Injuries, brawls, blowouts and blown saves...they find a new way to lose every day. They could win 58% of their remaining games and still cover for us. Kansas City was a team that everyone knew would be bad, but we're going to capitalize on the fact that Vegas is somewhat limited in how low they can set the win number, no matter how terrible the team. Pittsburgh I get to give myself an extra pat on the back for. Their number looked unbelievably high, and the Pirates are doing everything to prove my gut instinct correct. Cleveland and the Angels aren't looking so hot right now, but I refuse to give up on them. Cleveland isn't too far off pace, but LA has been without Bartolo Colon much of the year and currently find themsevles at the bottom of the AL West. Barring additional injuries, both teams look like solid contenders to move from red to black ink. Things I'll be hoping for: 1) Atlanta and Oakland avoiding hot streaks. 2) A fantastic crash by Cincinnati. (Last year's prediction of a 2nd half slide from Baltimore came true.) A special note for Washington, a sentimental favorite of mine. The Expos/Nationals juggernaut has been a perenial lock on the over side for years. Is their mystique fading away? Things aren't really that bad for them (for our purposes, at least) at the moment. They just have to play .500 ball the rest of the way for us to connect. Unfortunately, rumors are swirling about dealing Soriano and they are also a miserable 2-9 in 1-run games, which is usually an indicator of a team's gumption. Fellow stat-nerds, here is how things look so far:
Stay tuned for more updates and let's hope the numbers keep looking this good! Have fun! -T |
Inside My Brain