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7-26-05 I'm ashamed to be writing this. I purported myself to be a good sports predictor (not gambler by any means - gambling is illegal in most places) and said I had all the answers. Thus far, I have led you astray. All 3 of you reading this. Maybe that's why it's taken me a little longer than expected to post this column. It would have been a lot easier to bust out and say how great I was doing - believe me, I was prepared for that two weeks before the All-Star Break when everything was coming up Millhouse. But then things starting falling apart and you start realizing that the difference between +5 and -5.5 is huge! The presentation below is nerdy, so here is some help to decipher what all the columns mean. What you're going to see is the team, their magic number and corresponding win percentage, whether I picked them over or under, whether they are connecting on my pick, and then what the payout or loss would be with 10% juice included in the losses. Sorry, that's real life - no sugar-coating. Also some historical win percentages from throughout the season. It's especially difficult that I promised an All-Star Game follow-up when just a couple weeks before the Break, things were looking downright delicious. At that time, 19 picks were connecting and only 11 weren't. Then we were golden; up 16.1 units. By the time the Break rolled around, I was at 17-13 and down 2.8 units. So how did everything go from peachy to the pits all of the sudden? Well, one reason is that all four of my 5-point, A+ picks are doing a big flop. I don't even know if I can discuss this while sober. Florida: What the heck? These guys looked like monsters, came out of the gate like monsters, and then had a quarter-season collapse. At this moment, A.J. Burnett may or may not be on the trading block! Let's just hope they stay in the pennant or wild card race and get out of that sellers category around the trade deadline. San Fran: This one is devastatingly dumb to me and I'm ready to give up on it. I didn't take my own advice in watching out for injuries. Granted, this steroid-era stuff is new to all of us, but why didn't I predict that with Bonds? Sure, I fell for the knee surgery line, and that he would be back only a handful of games into the season. Silly me. I'm the same guy who thought Britney actually went in for "knee surgery" with A cups and came back out with Cs. Philly: They were on-track and then off-track and now actually by the time I'm writing this they're back on again. Holding their own in the NL East is no easy task, so let's hope they don't deal Billy Wagner. That could easily be the key to this pick and a 10.1-point swing on our final tally. Toronto: This team had to play horribly to get under their number and as it turns out they've played mediocre enough to put this pick to bed for the rest of the season. My 4-point, runner-up picks aren't looking all that sterling at the moment either. Forget about the White Sox and Oakland. Don't waste your time kicking yourself over those. At least I won't. My plan is to watch the ChiSox limp into the playoffs and get blasted by their first opponent. Their pitching is historical strong (at least in recent history) in the first half and subpar in the second half. Oakland is typically gangbusters in the 2nd half, so don't count on them tanking anytime soon. Let's just rejoice in St. Louis and Washington who were flat-out easy picks. The Cubs will probably tank, just slowly letting the wild card trickle away. Believe me, I've been there before. Houston has since come back over their number and looks to be a decent contender for the wild card. Just remember their phenomenal finish last year. And I got smart enough in my pre-season picks to say Clemens isn't too old, after about five years of him proving me wrong. Don't be surprised if Cleveland, Texas, and Los Angeles to go down to their final few games, even though the Dodgers are slipping a little and have never really gotten it together this year. For mid-range strength 3-point picks, these bad boys are keeping me afloat in this mess. They're 8-3 at the moment, which I would really like to take an opportunity to brag about, but only if you skipped the couple paragraphs above this and well, about everything else I've written today. Baltimore could be one of the feel-good stories of the year for our purposes. Their winning percentage was .540 at the Break and is .510 now. If they go 30-34 the rest of the way, we win. I like those odds. Arizona started well and has been slowly slipping all year. It just seems strange to me that a team with those weapons wouldn't be able to play a level of ball 14 games under .500. That's all we need out of them. Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Kansas City all look like they're in the bag. Teams that looked terrible, playing terribly. I don't know what's happened in Minnesota. Oakland snatched the wild card from them and they've gone sour for us on the over too. This is typically a solid team to take on the over. I'm enjoying the fact that Seattle is done over-achieving; this is just what I had hoped for in my preview. Atlanta is coming through in their typical fashion, so while they are close to slipping under their number, I wouldn't count on it. The Mets are buyers in the trade market right now, so I'm not giving up hope on them yet. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are both probably going down to the wire. And you never thought you'd have a reason to ask for a Brewers score in August. I hope you're starting to see the fun of all this. Even though they're just throw-in bets, the kind I wouldn't bother to pick if I didn't have to, both my 2s and 1s are coming through at a 2-1 clip. We should put Boston out of our minds. They have to win 2/3 of their games to get to our number. Just chalk it up to the AL East not being such a powerhouse this year. The LA Angels remain strong and Colorado remains weak, so count on adding those pennies to your bank in the fall. Taking the Yankees under was a sage pick, and one that looks easy now, but at the beginning of the year you couldn't doubt Steinbrenner. Next year will be the time to doubt him and really cash in. Detroit and San Diego are both hovering around their number and could be rather unexciting last-minute finishes for us.
Check back for more updates toward the end of the season. It won't be too long until we'll be able to kick out some of the locked-in winners and losers to clear up focus on the borderline teams we really need to pull through for us. Hopefully it will become one of those fun times of year for you, as it is for me. All the sudden you'll be walking along and the urge to buy a Marlins or Twins cap will hit you out of nowhere. It's those little moments in life you just have to embrace while shaking your head at them all at the same time. Have fun. -T |
Inside My Brain